FED Balance Sheet Shrinks Amid Rate Cut Predictions
The Fed balance sheet shrank by $28.6 billion in one week.
JPMorgan:
- We expect the first Fed rate cut in November.
Bank of America:
- We think the Federal Reserve Board will start cutting rates in September. (Predicting two rate cuts this year)
Reuters Survey:
- The Federal Reserve Board will start cutting rates in September—analysts expect two 25 basis point cuts this year.
- The dollar will weaken, but Fed monetary policy easing is necessary.
Kashkari, Fed Chair:
- The Federal Reserve Board rate should remain unchanged for a long time.
10x Research Analysts:
- We forecast a BTC rally to $83,000 in the coming weeks, thanks to global central banks easing monetary policies (Bank of Canada, ECB, etc. lowering interest rates).
- Considering economic growth, employment, and reduced consumer spending in the US, lowering inflation is only a matter of time.
Market Expectations (Fed Rate):
- June 12: Pause.
- July 31: Pause.
- September 18: Pause.
- November 7: 25 basis point cut to 5.00-5.25%.
- December 18: Pause.
Earlier: Nonfarm Payrolls
US Macroeconomic Data:
- Unemployment Rate (May)
- ACTUAL: 4.0% FORECAST: 3.9% PREV: 3.9%
- Change in Non-Farm Employment (May)
- ACTUAL: 272K FORECAST: 182K PREV: 165K
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (May)
- ACTUAL: 4.1% FORECAST: 3.9% PREV: 4.0%
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May)
- ACTUAL: 0.4% FORECAST: 0.3% PREV: 0.2%
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