Weekly Market Analysis: DXY, BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SPX500
Welcome to our detailed Weekly Market Analysis. In this article, we provide an in-depth look at the performance and future predictions of major financial indices and assets for the week. We cover the Dollar Index (DXY), Bitcoin against Tether (BTC/USDT), the S&P 500 (SPX500), and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Additionally, we offer brief insights into EUR/USD and ETH/USDT. By understanding these analyses, investors and traders can make informed decisions and better navigate the volatile financial markets.
Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
According to last week’s analysis, we can see that there was a full realization of the long narrative into the range of 105.458 — 105.742 through the test of the marked imbalance from below.
Actual analytics(17.06)
The narrative for this week on the dollar index is bullish. The price continues its movement within the established Order Flow. We consider the possibility of a correction into the STB zone, from where we expect a reaction towards local targets in the 105.9 range, and global targets in the 106.5 range.
Impact:
If the strength of the dollar increases and the index rises, it is detrimental to currency markets. Conversely, if the index decreases, fiat currencies fare better. Often, though not always, the rise of the dollar index coincides with weakness in other assets.
DXY Fundamentals:
The fundamental factors for DXY remain mixed, indicating that it is highly likely not ready to exit the large range of 101-105.9.
- Reduction in inflation increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut = negative for the dollar index.
- Lack of a clear signal for a rate cut in upcoming meetings = positive for the dollar index.
BTC/USDT
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
From the first zone of interest, the price gave a short-term reaction, which only went deeper into the nearest imbalance, followed by a decline. The daily imbalance has not yet been tested.
Actual analytics(17.06)
1D
Currently, the zones below remain untested, where we can expect the price to potentially move.
4H
Locally, we have several liquidity pools, and after these are cleared, we can look for a break in structure to open long positions.
SPX500
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
Based on the previous analysis, we see that the SP500 asset does not want to show any corrections at all. Instead, we saw a breakout from the zone where a short could have been expected (following the second scenario).
Therefore, the market is in a very bullish sentiment, and it is not worth looking for reversals, even if they do occur.
Actual analytics(17.06)
The asset is in a trending long, and I would continue to work on its extension. Of course, there are already thoughts that it is extremely overheated and that we might indeed see some correction this week, but that is just intuition. The market might indeed go down, but that’s no reason to reverse it. I continue to work with order flow for continuation.
SPX 500 Fundamentals
Last week, important economic data had a weak positive impact on the markets, while minor negative data created significant pressure on asset prices. This indicates fear in the markets.
Low unemployment points to economic growth and the absence of a recession in the U.S. Therefore, there are no significant reasons for panic, and the long-term positive trend continues.
This viewpoint is also supported by the charts of risk assets: despite short-term price drops, globally BTC, S&P500, and Nasdaq100 remain very close to their historical highs.
WTI
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
XTI (Oil) Based on the previous analysis, we did not receive any reaction that would allow us to consider short positions. Instead, there was an upward impulse breakout, and then it returned back into the range.
Actual analytics(17.06)
XTI oil is compressed in the middle of our main accumulation and in the middle of the local accumulation, indicating a 50/50 market reaction. We advise joining the movement post-factum, once it becomes clear in which direction it will be pushed.
So, if it’s a long position, it will be after a provocation at the 79 mark (joining the trend).
If it’s a short position, it will be after support at the 78 mark is given (joining the trend).
WTI Fundamentals
Long-term goals for oil remain relevant: by December, the price is likely to drop to $68-70. Last week, there were no significant events that would change this scenario.
Briefly about EUR/USD and ETH/ USDT
EUR/USD
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
Similar to the situation with DXY, we see a full realization and price reaction from the gap to the marked targets in the range of 1.07250-1.07000.
Actual analytics(17.06)
The narrative for this week for this currency pair is bearish. I have identified two imbalance zones from where we expect a short reaction to the local target of 1.06500 and the global target of 1.0600.
ETH/UDST
Analytics for the Past Week (10.06)
According to last week’s analysis, as expected, the price moved lower to make a full exit from the sideways movement, after which the price returned within the boundaries of the range.
Actual analytics(17.06)
1D
On the daily chart, we see a full deviation and return.
12H
On the 12-hour chart, we can monitor two zones: either we get a long reaction from the current levels, or, in the worst case, we may go even lower.
4H
On the 4-hour chart, there is the formation of an ascending structure. Below, we have a 4-hour Order Block (OB) from which we can potentially continue the upward price movement, or after clearing local liquidity.
